UK Energy Projection | LiveGridData

Updated Sat 09 May 17:28

Projection model

Choose a projection

Switch between scenarios and projection years. Values are based on recent annual trends and capped to keep the output within sensible ranges.

Projected clean share

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Projected gas share

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Projected carbon

—Modelled annual average carbon intensity

Projected demand

—Modelled average grid demand

1–5 year path

Clean share, gas share and carbon

Projected direction from the latest complete annual baseline.

Projection summary

Loading projection story…

Projected mix

Generation mix projection

Modelled annual domestic generation by fuel for the selected year.

Scenario comparison

Fifth-year clean share

How the three scenarios compare at the end of the 5-year outlook.

Model confidence

Confidence by metric

Confidence is scored from the amount of recent complete annual data and how stable each trend has been.

Projection movement

Change from baseline

The selected projection is compared with the latest complete historical baseline.

Projection values

1–5 year projection table

All values are modelled from the historical dataset and should be treated as projections, not forecasts.

Year	Clean share	Gas share	Carbon	Wind	Solar	Gas	Demand

Methodology

UK Energy Projection uses the same historical cache as the Historical and Records pages, then builds a simple trend model from the most recent complete annual data. The page is designed to update automatically whenever the historical cache is rebuilt.

The three scenarios use the same baseline with different trend weights. Conservative reduces recent trend movement, Expected follows the recent trend, and Accelerated increases recent trend movement.

These projections are modelled from Live Grid Data historical trends. They are not official NESO, Elexon, government or market forecasts.